Moderation in retail sales growth in early 2019 predicted by the CHEP Retail Index

Moderation in retail sales growth in early 2019 predicted by the CHEP Retail Index

1 February 2019 - Sydney Australia - Figures published in the latest edition of the quarterly CHEP Retail Index, which uses transactional data from CHEP pallet movements to provide a lead indicator of Australian Bureau of Statistics retail trade data, predicts moderated growth for retail turnover in the first quarter of 2019.

Index: Key figures

  • 3.4% year-on-year retail growth for March 2019
  • Turnover of $27.1billion in December 2018, with year-on-year growth for the month of December increasing to 3.4%
  • On a quarterly basis, 3.6% year-on-year growth for the December quarter and decreasing to 3.4% for the March quarter.

Retail turnover has moderated slightly in the first quarter of 2019 as Australia continues its long run of uninterrupted economic growth, which has flowed through to the labour market resulting in strong job growth.

Consumer confidence affecting the Australian market has drifted lower as falling house prices offset good news from the labour market, and households are reverting to wages to drive retail spending.

Pallet movement data indicates that retailers are expecting sales to increase only slightly year on year following a relatively subdued Christmas period, as population growth and the labour market tightens and an increase in the number of consumers opting for online purchases over visiting physical stores.

Providing commentary on the Index, David Rumbens, partner at Deloitte Access Economics, said that, “Bricks and mortar retailers were optimistic heading into the Christmas period, however data suggests that sales may not have met the expectations implied by pallet movements”.

President of CHEP Asia Pacific, Phillip Austin, said, “CHEP is well placed to meet changes in customer purchase behaviour as technology expands consumer choice, our scale and density means we can be faster and more responsive to customers’ changing needs in physical and online markets, enabling a smarter, more sustainable supply chain”.

The CHEP Retail Index analysis and commentary is provided by Deloitte. It is recognised as a reliable lead indicator of Australian Bureau of Statistics retail trade data. To access the January 2019 Index and previous editions of the Index, please click here.

 

About CHEP

CHEP is a global leader in managed, returnable and reusable packaging solutions, serving many of the world's largest companies in sectors such as consumer goods, fresh produce, beverage and automotive. CHEP’s service is environmentally sustainable and increases efficiency for customers while reducing operating risk and product damage. CHEP’s 12,500-plus employees and 300 million pallets and containers offer unparalleled coverage and exceptional value, supporting more than 500,000 customer touch-points in more than 55 countries. Our customer portfolio includes global companies and brands such as Procter & Gamble, Sysco, Kellogg's, Kraft, Nestlé, Ford and GM. CHEP is part of Brambles Limited. For more information, visit www.chep.com

 

About Deloitte

Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee, and its network of member firms, each of which is a legally separate and independent entity. Please see www.deloitte.com/au/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited and its member firms. In Australia, the member firm is the Australian partnership of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu. As one of Australia’s leading professional services firms. Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu and its affiliates provide audit, tax, consulting, and financial advisory services through approximately 6,000 people across the country. For more information, please visit our web site at www.deloitte.com.au.

 

 

The information contained in the CHEP Retail Index ("the Index") is provided collaboratively by CHEP Australia ABN 11 117 266 323 and Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu ABN 74 490 121 060 (“the Producers”). The information provided in the Index will be current as at the stated release date and will be provided without taking account of any person's personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this readers should, before acting on any information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to their objectives, financial situation or needs. None of the Producers shall be responsible for any loss whatsoever sustained by any person who relies on this information. The information in any report may contain material provided directly or indirectly by third parties. The Producers accept no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, the Producers exclude all liability in negligence or otherwise for the information contained with any report. The information in each report will be subject to change without notice and the Producers will be under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date or to produce future releases of any report. The forecasts given in reports will be predictive in character and are therefore inherently uncertain. Whilst reasonable efforts will be made to ensure that the assumptions and facts on which the forecasts are based are reasonable and correct, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions, incorrect facts or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ from these forecasts.

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